Friday, September 7, 2012

Why Egypt's Morsy went to China

President Mohamed Morsy is to a degree making his foreign policy as he goesStability is what was on his mind as he traveled to China this past weekHe became the first Egyptian leader to visit - albeit briefly - Iran in three decadesHe criticized Iranian President Ahmadinejad's support for Assad in Syria

(CNN) -- President Mohamed Morsy, by virtue of being in the post so briefly, is to a degree making his foreign policy as he goes. Beijing and Tehran have been his first big forays and he is already making waves.

It is not that he is acting at random or without design, he most assuredly is not, but he is waiting for his advisory teams to catch up with the pace of international diplomacy. According to an adviser he is still working out his priorities fine-tuning his strategy.

He is a new president growing into the role. As he has demonstrated recently by replacing his defense and security chiefs, who threatened to curtail his ambitions, he is not afraid to move with speed to get what he wants.

Morsy now has more power to throw around commanding, as he does, both legislative and executive levers of authority, but so too does he have the expectations of the nation weighing more heavily upon him. His decisions count, and with their outcome so will rise or fall the popularity of the Islamists he is deemed to represent.

var currExpandable="expand15";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='world/2012/08/31/robertson-egypt-media-crackdown.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120831053443-robertson-egypt-media-crackdown-00003818-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand15Store=mObj;var currExpandable="expand25";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='world/2012/08/13/ctw-intv-gerges-on-morsy-shake-up-in-egypt.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120708042536-morsy-78-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand25Store=mObj;var currExpandable="expand35";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='bestoftv/2012/08/13/exp-tsr-morsy-us-impact.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120813093343-exp-tsr-morsy-us-impact-00002001-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand35Store=mObj;var currExpandable="expand45";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.source='bestoftv/2012/08/12/idesk-egypt-morsy-retires-officers-mann-lee.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120710073838-morsy-tantawi-july-9-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand45Store=mObj;At the polls in June the nation was divided, split almost evenly between Morsy and his opponent. By many voters the decision was considered a choice between two evils, but since ousting the Mubarak-era military chiefs, the lackluster anti-Morsy protest August 24 indicates most appear to want him to get on with the task of stabilizing the country and creating jobs.

That's what he had in mind when he went to Beijing, according to advisers. Morsy sees the Chinese as a major source for business development in the future. Egypt's pitch is that better than any other African nation it can be the gateway for the world's rising power through which to exploit its myriad interests on the vast continent.

Improving Egypt's economy at a time when foreign reserves -- at $35 billion when Mubarak was ousted -- have shrunk to less than half that and official unemployment is more than 10% and is likely much more could not be more critical.

The country's newspapers were plastered with pictures of Morsy with Chinese leaders, holding talks, shaking hands, inspecting guards of honor. The headlines were all about his drive securing jobs. Success will no doubt build his base come the next elections.

The next leg of his journey -- to Iran -- was entirely different. An adviser told me Morsy was going out of diplomatic courtesy, handing over the rotating presidency of the non-aligned summit to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Morsy would only be there four hours, he said. It turned out to be much more than a quiet passing of the non-aligned baton.

Just by going to Tehran Morsy set the diplomatic firmament alight as the first Egyptian leader in over three decades to visit Tehran. Then there was wonderment at what he might be planning.

Two weeks earlier at his foray to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for the emergency summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, he is reported to have first floated his contact group idea for solving the Syrian crisis.

The few details that emerged indicated the contact group would be made up of four nations including fellow sunni states Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who like Egypt openly back the rebels in Syria, and shia Iran, the Syrian leader President Bashar al Assad's staunchest ally.

What Morsy revealed in Tehran was a message that would be as well received back home in Egypt as it was reviled in Iran.

His open criticism of Ahmadinejad's support for Assad was not to his host's taste and was such a smack down the Syrian delegation walked out in protest.

On the streets of Cairo, Alexandria and Egypt's other teeming cities Morsy's critics and supporters alike are united on one thing -- they are appalled by the carnage Assad is perpetrating on his own people. None can fathom his justification in using attack jets on his own people.

In this deeply religious nation whose majority share the same sunni faith as Syria's majority, who for the most part are the root of the rebellion, Morsy's upbraiding of Ahmadinejad will have been a poke in the Iranian's eye that many Egyptians welcome.

Perhaps most critical for Middle East experts will be the course Morsy charts with his neighbor Israel. He has promised to uphold his country's existing international agreements, but in the past month has sent the army's tanks unannounced into the Sinai. That, by long established understanding, could not be done without Israel's blessing and has raised eyebrows to say the least.

The pretext for chasing down jihadists who had killed 16 Egyptian servicemen in the Sinai may have blunted some of his northern neighbor's anger but it has created an uneasy feeling. Morsy is learning the weight of his decisions can carry wide-ranging implications and he must carefully calibrate his moves or risk unforeseen consequences.

But there may be more unilateral moves in the Sinai to come. As an adviser told me the country's national interest must come first. They must build security in that area, thwart jihadists, offer the tribes better services and jobs, even use the territory to create new industrial zones and alleviate pressure on overcrowded Cairo

Breaking with Mubarak's perceived subservience to Western interests, namely the stability of Israel over what so many Egyptians see as an unfair deal to the detriment of fellow Arabs may appeal to the populist in Morsy. But expect to see the pragmatist too, as his policies are honed to balance between what he has inherited and what he wants.

He has got the power. Popularity -- if he can achieve it -- is going to take longer. A smart foreign policy will help, but it will not be a short cut.

ADVERTISEMENTSeptember 3, 2012 -- Updated 1501 GMT (2301 HKT) David Frum: The drought in the U.S., Russia and Australia is driving up food prices -- and that's long been tied to unrest among the world's poor.August 31, 2012 -- Updated 1847 GMT (0247 HKT) One journalist reveals how violence and conflict have devastated Syria, from the suburbs of the capital to central Damascus.September 4, 2012 -- Updated 1304 GMT (2104 HKT) Pharmaceutical firm Gruenenthal apologizes for the impact of its drug had on babies -- but campaigners say more is needed.August 31, 2012 -- Updated 0412 GMT (1212 HKT) China looks to usher in its next generation of leaders -- but one of the messiest political scandals in years continues to fester. Eileen Barker explains how the Rev. Sun Syung Moon was the last charismatic leader of a wave of movements that spread through the West.September 4, 2012 -- Updated 0605 GMT (1405 HKT) Many in the Philippines lack health education and birth control access, something a new law is trying to address, despite church opposition.September 3, 2012 -- Updated 1258 GMT (2058 HKT) The culture of Libya's indigenous Berber population is blossoming following years of suppresion -- but how secure is their future?August 29, 2012 -- Updated 1414 GMT (2214 HKT) In 1948, a hospital outside London witnessed the birth of the Paralympic movement, as a doctor sought to change the lives of spinal injury patients.September 4, 2012 -- Updated 1042 GMT (1842 HKT) How a high-octane movie from Nollywood is highlighting the need for better civil aviation safety across Africa.September 3, 2012 -- Updated 1116 GMT (1916 HKT) Judit Polgar Judit Polar became the youngest ever grandmaster at 15 and is the only women ranked in the World Chess Federation's top 100 players.September 3, 2012 -- Updated 1052 GMT (1852 HKT) Three years ago, DePrince participated in the youth America Grand Prix, the biggest ballet competition in the world, where she won a scholarship. The teenage dancer also became the subject of Sierra Leonean Michaela DePrince lost both of her parents aged three. Now, fifteen years later, she is a professional ballet dancer. September 3, 2012 -- Updated 0916 GMT (1716 HKT) The spectacular baobab trees are a landamark of Madagascar, a large island located off the southeastern African coast. Madagascar is home to a vast array of animal and plant life -- but it has lost 90% of its forest to deforestation, putting an ecological system at risk. September 4, 2012 -- Updated 0722 GMT (1522 HKT) Taking the aggressive element out of one of Australia's most iconic but endangered animals could save it from extinction. September 3, 2012 -- Updated 1008 GMT (1808 HKT) Thousands of visitors will descend on Monaco for the annual yacht show this month -- but the principality has more to offer than big boats.September 4, 2012 -- Updated 0242 GMT (1042 HKT) Research suggests having executive desk toys, which have been around since the 1960s, can increase workplace wellbeing.Today's five most popular storiesMoreADVERTISEMENT

View the original article here

No comments:

Post a Comment